NZD/USD (Pending Short)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announced its rate decision on Wednesday. I expect the rate cut to be at least 75 basis points matching the interest rate of Australia. There is perhaps more than 50% chance that it might be 100 basis points or more. NZD/USD will unlikely rally given the impending rate cut. Looking at the hourly chart from this week, I believe that it will at least continue to range bound between 0.53 and 0.52. The pair closed the week above 0.53 and if it remains at this level when market opens next week, I will attempt to short it.








Update 1
I decide to hold back the short today because both gold and oil are rallying. Best to stay on the sidelines and watch first.

Update 2
Looks like the previous support of ~0.53 levels has now turned into a resistance with the impending rate cut. I will place a sell limit order at 0.533. It may or may not hit this level even. I will act accordingly if the order triggers. We will see a lot of action on Wednesday in the FOMC press release

Update 3
Decide to withdrawn the position. Just did not feel right about with the FOMC meeting so close.

Note: I incorrectly state that both the RBNZ and FOMC press release is on Thursday but they are both on Wednesday. I since correctly it.