Overnight, USD traded lower against most majors. There seem to be wide anticipation that the US Non-Farm Payroll to be released on Friday will disappoint again. USD/JPY had dropped 200 pips from last night and I am expecting the trend to continue till at least the release of NFP. I am taking half position here following the earlier loss on NZD/USD. I placed a limit order at 92 and see if it triggers. If it triggers, I intend to place a OCO with stop loss at 93 and a limit of 89. This will give me a risk/reward of 1:3. If NFP proves to be really devastating, I may adjust for lower limit to maximize my profit. Now I wait for my order to be triggered.
Update 1
Order was triggered and the position is now trading in positive territory. Seemed like peeps over at babypips have a similiar view as me. I used a wider stop loss at 93.5 instead of the intended 93.0. Once 90 target is hit, I will adjust my stop loss accordingly. I am not setting a profit stop for this one now because I think the pair might really plunge. The one risk here is that Japanese government may intervene if Yen is too strong.
Update 2
The US Non-Farm Payroll results was indeed bad. More than 500 k job losses. But surprisingly the market seem to think that this number is not huge enough and the pair rallied for a while. Since I did not get the plunge I expected, I took whatever profit I could from the table. 55 pips for this half position. Not a very ideal trade but nevertheless profitable and I live to trade another day.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
USD/JPY (Short)
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